Post by New Jersey Nets on Feb 1, 2008 19:59:37 GMT -5
West[/size]
#1 San Antonio Spurs (55-27)vs. #8 Los Angeles Clippers (42-40)
Starting Five Breakdown:
Center
vs.
On offense there is no question Dirk wins this matchup. Dirk has become unstoppable on offense but defense is another story. He has gotten better over the years but he still struggles against the better big men in the league. Luckily for Dirk, Kaman isn't one of the better offensive big men in the league. Kaman is progressing but he still needs to improve his post game to become a consistent offensive force. His defense is solid and only getting better. Dirk will have problems posting up and in the lane against Kaman. Kaman isn't a great perimeter defender so Dirk won't have problems getting his jumper off against Kaman. In a few years it might be a different story but for now...Edge: Spurs
Power Forward
vs.
Jermaine O'Neal (when healthy) is one of the most complete big men in the league. He is a good post defender and makes his presence felt in the paint. On offense he can almost score at will on the blocks and against smaller defenders he almost always dominates. This matchup will be a problem for the Spurs. Charlie Villanueva is young and promising power forward but is no match for O'Neal. Jermaine is taller and longer than Charlie V and will clean up the glass without much trouble. Edge: Clippers
Small Forward
vs.
Michael Finley has become a great role player as the years have worn on him. He can still slash to the basket but now has a deadly 3-point shot. He absolutely can't be left open. He is also a solid defender but can be beat by quicker players. Even though Finley can be a handful, Tayshaun Prince should have no problems with him. Prince is a great defender with freakish length that allows him to take more chances on defense than most. He also has a solid offensive game and will give Finley fits. Expect to see a lot of his patented lefty hook. Edge: Clippers
Shooting Guard
vs.
Michael Redd is a beast on offense. He has a quick release on his jump shot and can hit any shot on the floor. He can be streaky at times but will usually drop 20-25 points. His defense needs some work. This is where Mobley can take advantage. Mobley is a good offensive player and can be a solid defender. He will still have problems with Redd and expect the points between these two to be close with Redd getting the better of Mobley. Edge: Spurs
Point Guard
vs.
This position could decide if the series becomes interesting. Steve Francis had an ok year but at times has played at an all-star level. He has all the talent to become the point guard the Clippers need. If he stops thinking shoot first, second,...tenth, the Clippers have a shot at keeping the games close. Mo Williams on the other hand, only has to run the offense. He can score but with Redd and Dirk on the team he doesn't need to carry an offense. He is a good passer and and solid defender and should be able to bottle up Francis unless, of course, Francis goes nuts. Edge: Spurs
Bench
vs.
This is where the teams are truly separated. The Spurs can go 11 deep while the Clippers are 7 deep at best. Horry, Barry, Harpring, Hunter, and Dampier are experienced and good role players. They are tested vets and know how to win in the playoffs. The Clippers bench is stupidly thin. Tim Thomas in the lone bright spot and can be a real contributer from 3-point range and on the glass. Shaun Livingston will contribute as he is the best guard off the bench and has uber potential but lacks experience. Thaddeus Young is in the Livingston category and Quinton Ross can contribute but hasn't played that much off the bench this year and he isn't good enough yet to carry a second squad. Edge: Spurs
Total Edge: Spurs 4, Clippers 2
Series Breakdown:
The Spurs are heavily favored as they had the best record in the West and won the highly contested southwestern division (four 50-win teams). The Spurs are also the early favorite to represent the West in the NBA Finals. The bench is very deep and the starting five have meshed well over the entirety of the season. Expect Dirk and Redd to have a monster series and the team defense (led by the bench) to keep Francis and Mobley at bay.
The starting five (Dirk, Charlie V, Finley, Redd, and Mo Williams) had a good season. Redd led the way with 20.4 ppg and Dirk had 16.4 ppg while Finley contributed 16.8 ppg. All five averaged more than 13 ppg. All but Charlie V averaged a steal per game and both Dirk and Villanueva averaged over 1.3 bpg. Villanueva had a good year on the glass leading the team with 9.3 rpg. The Clippers will have their hands full stopping this five headed force.
The Clippers have some star players and a shot (albeit a long shot) at making a serious run at the Spurs in this series. Jermain O'Neal averaged just under 20 ppg while posting more than 10 rpg. He also led the team with over 2 blocks per game. All but one starter (Kaman) had over a steal per game while three (Mobley, Prince, and Francis) averaged over 1.5 spg. If they can get more production from Francis and Mobley on both ends of the floor the Clippers have a chance to steal a game or two. Otherwise, the Clippers are going to have a hard time keeping any of the games close.
Prediction: Spurs 4, Clippers 1
#4 Phoenix Suns (53-29) vs. #5 Houston Rockets (50-32)
Starting Five Breakdown:
Center
vs.
This matchup will be interesting. Bogut is more of an offensive center but he won't have to play much defense on the offensive enigma that is Ben Wallace. Ben Wallace is a great defender so he should be able to lock down Bogut throughout the series. This matchup will come down to wills. Bogut needs to at least be as productive as he was during the regular season for the Suns to keep pace with the Rockets. Ben Wallace's stellar D wins out here...Edge: Rockets
Power Forward
vs.
This matchup isn't even close. Amare is a man-child and has been since he entered the league out of high school. He may not be a great defender but he has improved and should stop Frye from being effective. Expect Amare to dominate Frye. If Frye can somehow outperform Amare then the Rockets might walk away with this series but that is highly unlikely even though Frye had and 18 ppg and 9 rpg year. Edge: Suns
Small Forward
vs.
Shawn Marion and Devin Brown. Doesn't even seem fair. Brown is more of a defensive specialist but there is no way he is stopping the Matrix. Marion had another two steal, two block year. His plays good D and excels in the running offense headed by Nash. Brown will be overshadowed before tip-off. Edge: Suns
Shooting Guard
vs.
Not exactly sure what to expect from this matchup. Hill is a good defender but has lost a lot on offense from the multiple ankle surgeries. If he can somehow slow down Ray Allen the Suns chances dramatically improve. Allen doesn't have to do much to stop Hill since Hill hasn't shown much since the surgeries. Should be another beavy of "Ray, Ray" chants in Houston. Edge: Rockets
Point Guard
vs.
This should be an exciting matchup. Nash vs. Wade. Wade is a good defender and has the speed to keep up with Nash but Nash should pick apart the Rockets like he does every team. The question will be if Nash can do anything to stop Wade. If Wade goes into playoff mode, this series could get ugly. Edge: Rockets
Bench
vs.
This series could hinge on Kleiza being out. The Rockets need all the help they can get from their bench and losing a key player like him will really hurt. Francisco Garcia can play well at times but is too inconsistent to be counted on to contribute. Chuck Hayes and Rafer Alston are good players especially off the bench but Alston is really streaky from 3-point land and Hayes is more of a defensive/rebound specialist than a spark guy. While Marcus Williams (the rookie) has little experience to speak of. The Suns have J.R. Smith, David Lee, Eddie Jones, Darko Milicic, and Deke. All can contribute in limited minutes and some (Jones, Smith, and Lee) excel in limited time. The bench for the Suns is not only deeper but the quality is better too. Edge: Suns
Total Edge: Suns 3, Rockets 3
Series Breakdown:
The Rockets may have less wins than the Suns but have a potential all-time great in Wade. He can blow up anytime for 40+ points and can also drop a triple-double at any time. He will need help though in getting the Rockets to the next round of the playoffs. Frye will need to perform like he did in the regular season (18.8 ppg and 9.8 rpg) for Houston to keep pace with the running Suns. Ben Wallace should continue to lock down his man and post solid defensive numbers (1.79 spg and 2.05 bpg in regular season) while cleaning the glass (11.2 rpg in regular season). Ray Ray will score points but if he can play even a little defense it could mean a difference in early summer vacation or the next round. Devin Brown isn't expected to do much. The Rockets would be happy with his regular season production of 7 ppg. The bench is the question mark for the Rockets. It isn't really deep but there is quality there and if they can one or two players to step up they will go on in the playoffs.
The Suns have a star-laden starting five. Amare, Marion, and Nash play great together and play best at an up-tempo pace. Amare and Marion both had monster years. Amare had 18.7 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 1.52 spg, and 2.44 bpg and Marion had 20.2 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 2.11 spg, and 2.5 bpg. Couple that with Nash's 17.8 ppg and 6+ apg and the Suns are very formidable. Problem is Nash isn't a great defender and neither is Amare. They try to outscore opponents and usually do with their blistering pace. If Bogut and Hill can do better than the 14.0 ppg 9.1 rpg and 8.6 ppg 4.1 rpg, respecitively, the Suns could wrap this series up before Game 7. The trio of J.R. Smith, Grant Hill, and David Lee provide points off the bench, rebounding, and defense. They will be asked to shoulder some of the scoring load and if any of the big three should get into foul trouble they will need to step up.
Only three regular season wins separate these two talented teams and the series is slated to be very tight. The Rockets have superstars Dwyane Wade and Ray Allen to go up against the Suns Nash, Marion, and Amare. Big Ben is a yearly DPOY candidate and so is Marion. Both teams have good enough benches to provide the boost(s) needed in a potential seven game series. The series will on whether or not Bogut, Hill, Brown, and Frye can step up their game for their respective teams. Since it is a close call I'll go with the more experienced team top to bottom and that is the Suns.
Prediction: Suns 4, Rockets 3 (two OT games)
#3 Denver Nuggets (50-32) vs. #6 Dallas Mavericks (51-31)
Starting Five Breakdown:
Center
vs.
Tim Duncan is a sim legend. He'll quietly give you 20 ppg, 10 rpg, and 2 bpg. He is a good defender and a great offensive player. His basketball IQ is off the charts and he knows how to play within an offense. Antonio McDyess is a good player and better suited as a 6th man. He's a good scorer when needed and can play good defense. He's going to have his hands full with Duncan and it will be a miracle if he can keep up with Duncan's scoring. Duncan should dominate the undersized McDyess. Edge: Nuggets
Power Forward
vs.
Normally, Wallace would gets the nod here but Marshall is playing well. Marshall had a good year and could hang with Sheed but I'm realistic. Wallace is a good defender and can destroy teams on the offensive end at times. Plus, he shoots 40% from the three point line and rebounds well. Marshall put up good numbers but they were good numbers for him. He's not going to outplay Sheed. Edge: Mavs
Small Forward
vs.
This is where it gets sticky. Josh Howard has developed a nice offensive game to go with a good defensive game. He's a better defender than Melo and could contain him but Melo is better offensively. Melo should take advantage of Howard in the post while Howard's quickness will be useful in getting by Melo. If Howard can outperform Melo at both ends Mavs could win the series. Edge: Mavs
Shooting Guard
vs.
This will be a matchup. Barbosa is unstoppable on offense and is learning to be a better passer. Rip Hamilton will run Barbosa ragged getting open for jumpers off of screens. Rip also plays good D but will be chasing Barbosa around the court. This could come down to who has more energy. If that is the case then I have to go with Rip. Edge: Mavs
Point Guard
vs.
This easily goes to Bibby. He's a great offensive point guard and can make the necessary passes to run an offense. He lacks any defensive prowess. However, Devin Harris is out for the playoffs and Earl Boykins will be the new starting point guard. Boykins is very quick but his size will be at a disadvantage on defense as Bibby can just post him up, although I would love to see Boykins destroy Bibby. Edge: Nuggets
Bench
vs.
Looks like the bench will decide another series. Bonzi Wells, Jeff Green, Matt Barnes, Joakim Noah, and David Wesley have contributed all season. Wells is a great bench player and Barnes and Noah provide much needed energy off the bench. Jeff Green will need to step up as will Wesley since Harris in injured. Jerry Stackhouse, Flip Murray, Devean George, DeSagana Diop, and Julian Wright are good as a group off the bench. Stack is the perfect 6th man and has improved his 3-point shooting. George has always performed off the bench and Diop brings a legit shot blocking ability. Murray puts the Mavs bench over the top. There are just too many experienced players that have proven themselves in the playoffs on that team. Edge: Mavs
Total Edge: Nuggets 2, Mavs 4
Series Breakdown:
This should be another close series. The Harris injury will play a major part in how close the games are for the Mavs. Even without Harris the Mavs have plenty of firepower. Sheed had his usual 19 ppg and 9 rpg while playing good defense. He may have been his usual self but Dice was anything but. Returning to his previous Nuggets days, he had 21.1 ppg, 9.9 rpg, and over 1.7 bpg. He stepped up his game in a big way. The rest of the team performed as expected and will make it tough for the Nuggets to advance.
The Nuggets have a deep team led by Tim Duncan. Duncan was solid as always and Bibby played well beside him with 20.7 ppg, 6.3 apg, and 1.79 spg. Marshall had a 15 ppg and 7 rpg year to help take some pressure off of Bibby and Duncan. All staters had at least 12 ppg and Barbosa and Melo can go off at any time and drop a 40 point game. It is going to be hard for the Nuggets to get past the Mavs without any major contributions from their bench but with player like Noah and Barnes bringing an attitude 2nd squad, production shouldn't be an issue.
This should be another close series but I just can't go against Duncan. Duncan, Melo, and Bibby. We'll be hearing from them again in the playoffs.
Prediction: Nuggets 4, Mavs 3
#2 New Orleans Hornets (54-28) vs. #7 Utah Jazz (48-34)
Starting Five Breakdown:
Center
vs.
Shaq is still dominant is a sim. He's a great low-post defender but Okur doesn't play a lot of low post on offense. He's a jump shooter with range out to three. I'm not expecting Shaq to stop Okur but I know Okur won't some close to stopping Shaq on offense or on the boards. Shaq should return to form against the Jazz. Edge: Hornets
Power Forward
vs.
This is another good matchup. David West and Carlos Boozer are both great young power forwards. Both have good low-post games and both can play defense. West is a better jump shooter and has more range while Boozer can knock down the 10-12 footer all day long. Both can rebound well too. They should both cancel each other out but I'll give the slight edge to Boozer since he has prior playoff experience. Edge: Jazz
Small Forward
vs.
I'm going to say this matchup decides the series. Butler is a great all-around player while Richardson is adept offensively. JRich can hit the three and still has enough left to take to the hole. Butler can also hit the three but is more of a slasher on offense. Butler is a better defender than JRich but doesn't come up with more steals. Butler is going to give JRich problems all day. Edge: Jazz
Shooting Guard
vs.
This matchup will come down to who can play better defense. Mike Miller is an upper echelon scorer and a dangerous three point threat but Dorell Wright is coming into his own after getting a year to start. Wright will have to raise his offensive game to win this matchup. His defense is already better than Miller's and could be great one day. This isn't the day so...Edge: Jazz
Point Guard
vs.
Both Deron Williams and Raymond Felton are young and are leading two winning teams into the playoffs. Deron is bigger and much more of a scorer than Felton. Both play ok defense and both can make great passes. Deron has much more playoff experience and experience leading his team. That is the difference. Edge: Jazz
Bench
vs.
The benches for both teams are solid but the Jazz are more deep. Ronnie Brewer won't even get playing and he's a good defensive minded player. Posey, Millsap, Fisher, P.J. Brown, and Pargo bring experience of being in the playoffs and winning in the playoffs. That is a hard combo to beat with the likes of a very old Doug Christie, Gary Payton, Lammond Murray, and Tony Delk. Ime Udoka is the best bench player and he barely gets playing time. Edge: Jazz
Total Edge: Hornets 1, Jazz 5
Series Breakdown:
There are a lot of unknowns for the Hornets. Before we go over those lets go over the knowns. Shaq will be his normal self if not better (23 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 4.1 apg, and 2.18 bpg). David West will at least produce 15 ppg and 8 rpg for the Hornets in this series. Felton and JRich should be close to their regular season stats (15ppg and 13 ppg) but will be hard pressed to produce better than that. The biggest unknown is Dorell Wright. If he can do more than his 9.8 ppg in the regular season the Hornets have a shot to win this series. Also, Mike Miller must step up and be the 3-point threat for Shaq, Jason Kapono was. The bench is aging rapidly and how much they have left is unknown.
The Jazz don't have as many questions. The main question is, "Who will step up and play well off the bench?" There could easily be more than one answer to that question. There are at least five guys that could step up and each one will have their chance. The starting five have fewer questions. Okur had a great season (19.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg, and 3.7 apg) along with Boozer (16+ppg and 10+rpg). The starting five is better and the bench is better. I have to go with the Jazz. This is my upset pick so far and I'll stick to it.
Prediction: Hornets 2, Jazz4 [/color][/b]
#1 San Antonio Spurs (55-27)vs. #8 Los Angeles Clippers (42-40)
Starting Five Breakdown:
Center
vs.
On offense there is no question Dirk wins this matchup. Dirk has become unstoppable on offense but defense is another story. He has gotten better over the years but he still struggles against the better big men in the league. Luckily for Dirk, Kaman isn't one of the better offensive big men in the league. Kaman is progressing but he still needs to improve his post game to become a consistent offensive force. His defense is solid and only getting better. Dirk will have problems posting up and in the lane against Kaman. Kaman isn't a great perimeter defender so Dirk won't have problems getting his jumper off against Kaman. In a few years it might be a different story but for now...Edge: Spurs
Power Forward
vs.
Jermaine O'Neal (when healthy) is one of the most complete big men in the league. He is a good post defender and makes his presence felt in the paint. On offense he can almost score at will on the blocks and against smaller defenders he almost always dominates. This matchup will be a problem for the Spurs. Charlie Villanueva is young and promising power forward but is no match for O'Neal. Jermaine is taller and longer than Charlie V and will clean up the glass without much trouble. Edge: Clippers
Small Forward
vs.
Michael Finley has become a great role player as the years have worn on him. He can still slash to the basket but now has a deadly 3-point shot. He absolutely can't be left open. He is also a solid defender but can be beat by quicker players. Even though Finley can be a handful, Tayshaun Prince should have no problems with him. Prince is a great defender with freakish length that allows him to take more chances on defense than most. He also has a solid offensive game and will give Finley fits. Expect to see a lot of his patented lefty hook. Edge: Clippers
Shooting Guard
vs.
Michael Redd is a beast on offense. He has a quick release on his jump shot and can hit any shot on the floor. He can be streaky at times but will usually drop 20-25 points. His defense needs some work. This is where Mobley can take advantage. Mobley is a good offensive player and can be a solid defender. He will still have problems with Redd and expect the points between these two to be close with Redd getting the better of Mobley. Edge: Spurs
Point Guard
vs.
This position could decide if the series becomes interesting. Steve Francis had an ok year but at times has played at an all-star level. He has all the talent to become the point guard the Clippers need. If he stops thinking shoot first, second,...tenth, the Clippers have a shot at keeping the games close. Mo Williams on the other hand, only has to run the offense. He can score but with Redd and Dirk on the team he doesn't need to carry an offense. He is a good passer and and solid defender and should be able to bottle up Francis unless, of course, Francis goes nuts. Edge: Spurs
Bench
vs.
This is where the teams are truly separated. The Spurs can go 11 deep while the Clippers are 7 deep at best. Horry, Barry, Harpring, Hunter, and Dampier are experienced and good role players. They are tested vets and know how to win in the playoffs. The Clippers bench is stupidly thin. Tim Thomas in the lone bright spot and can be a real contributer from 3-point range and on the glass. Shaun Livingston will contribute as he is the best guard off the bench and has uber potential but lacks experience. Thaddeus Young is in the Livingston category and Quinton Ross can contribute but hasn't played that much off the bench this year and he isn't good enough yet to carry a second squad. Edge: Spurs
Total Edge: Spurs 4, Clippers 2
Series Breakdown:
The Spurs are heavily favored as they had the best record in the West and won the highly contested southwestern division (four 50-win teams). The Spurs are also the early favorite to represent the West in the NBA Finals. The bench is very deep and the starting five have meshed well over the entirety of the season. Expect Dirk and Redd to have a monster series and the team defense (led by the bench) to keep Francis and Mobley at bay.
The starting five (Dirk, Charlie V, Finley, Redd, and Mo Williams) had a good season. Redd led the way with 20.4 ppg and Dirk had 16.4 ppg while Finley contributed 16.8 ppg. All five averaged more than 13 ppg. All but Charlie V averaged a steal per game and both Dirk and Villanueva averaged over 1.3 bpg. Villanueva had a good year on the glass leading the team with 9.3 rpg. The Clippers will have their hands full stopping this five headed force.
The Clippers have some star players and a shot (albeit a long shot) at making a serious run at the Spurs in this series. Jermain O'Neal averaged just under 20 ppg while posting more than 10 rpg. He also led the team with over 2 blocks per game. All but one starter (Kaman) had over a steal per game while three (Mobley, Prince, and Francis) averaged over 1.5 spg. If they can get more production from Francis and Mobley on both ends of the floor the Clippers have a chance to steal a game or two. Otherwise, the Clippers are going to have a hard time keeping any of the games close.
Prediction: Spurs 4, Clippers 1
#4 Phoenix Suns (53-29) vs. #5 Houston Rockets (50-32)
Starting Five Breakdown:
Center
vs.
This matchup will be interesting. Bogut is more of an offensive center but he won't have to play much defense on the offensive enigma that is Ben Wallace. Ben Wallace is a great defender so he should be able to lock down Bogut throughout the series. This matchup will come down to wills. Bogut needs to at least be as productive as he was during the regular season for the Suns to keep pace with the Rockets. Ben Wallace's stellar D wins out here...Edge: Rockets
Power Forward
vs.
This matchup isn't even close. Amare is a man-child and has been since he entered the league out of high school. He may not be a great defender but he has improved and should stop Frye from being effective. Expect Amare to dominate Frye. If Frye can somehow outperform Amare then the Rockets might walk away with this series but that is highly unlikely even though Frye had and 18 ppg and 9 rpg year. Edge: Suns
Small Forward
vs.
Shawn Marion and Devin Brown. Doesn't even seem fair. Brown is more of a defensive specialist but there is no way he is stopping the Matrix. Marion had another two steal, two block year. His plays good D and excels in the running offense headed by Nash. Brown will be overshadowed before tip-off. Edge: Suns
Shooting Guard
vs.
Not exactly sure what to expect from this matchup. Hill is a good defender but has lost a lot on offense from the multiple ankle surgeries. If he can somehow slow down Ray Allen the Suns chances dramatically improve. Allen doesn't have to do much to stop Hill since Hill hasn't shown much since the surgeries. Should be another beavy of "Ray, Ray" chants in Houston. Edge: Rockets
Point Guard
vs.
This should be an exciting matchup. Nash vs. Wade. Wade is a good defender and has the speed to keep up with Nash but Nash should pick apart the Rockets like he does every team. The question will be if Nash can do anything to stop Wade. If Wade goes into playoff mode, this series could get ugly. Edge: Rockets
Bench
vs.
This series could hinge on Kleiza being out. The Rockets need all the help they can get from their bench and losing a key player like him will really hurt. Francisco Garcia can play well at times but is too inconsistent to be counted on to contribute. Chuck Hayes and Rafer Alston are good players especially off the bench but Alston is really streaky from 3-point land and Hayes is more of a defensive/rebound specialist than a spark guy. While Marcus Williams (the rookie) has little experience to speak of. The Suns have J.R. Smith, David Lee, Eddie Jones, Darko Milicic, and Deke. All can contribute in limited minutes and some (Jones, Smith, and Lee) excel in limited time. The bench for the Suns is not only deeper but the quality is better too. Edge: Suns
Total Edge: Suns 3, Rockets 3
Series Breakdown:
The Rockets may have less wins than the Suns but have a potential all-time great in Wade. He can blow up anytime for 40+ points and can also drop a triple-double at any time. He will need help though in getting the Rockets to the next round of the playoffs. Frye will need to perform like he did in the regular season (18.8 ppg and 9.8 rpg) for Houston to keep pace with the running Suns. Ben Wallace should continue to lock down his man and post solid defensive numbers (1.79 spg and 2.05 bpg in regular season) while cleaning the glass (11.2 rpg in regular season). Ray Ray will score points but if he can play even a little defense it could mean a difference in early summer vacation or the next round. Devin Brown isn't expected to do much. The Rockets would be happy with his regular season production of 7 ppg. The bench is the question mark for the Rockets. It isn't really deep but there is quality there and if they can one or two players to step up they will go on in the playoffs.
The Suns have a star-laden starting five. Amare, Marion, and Nash play great together and play best at an up-tempo pace. Amare and Marion both had monster years. Amare had 18.7 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 1.52 spg, and 2.44 bpg and Marion had 20.2 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 2.11 spg, and 2.5 bpg. Couple that with Nash's 17.8 ppg and 6+ apg and the Suns are very formidable. Problem is Nash isn't a great defender and neither is Amare. They try to outscore opponents and usually do with their blistering pace. If Bogut and Hill can do better than the 14.0 ppg 9.1 rpg and 8.6 ppg 4.1 rpg, respecitively, the Suns could wrap this series up before Game 7. The trio of J.R. Smith, Grant Hill, and David Lee provide points off the bench, rebounding, and defense. They will be asked to shoulder some of the scoring load and if any of the big three should get into foul trouble they will need to step up.
Only three regular season wins separate these two talented teams and the series is slated to be very tight. The Rockets have superstars Dwyane Wade and Ray Allen to go up against the Suns Nash, Marion, and Amare. Big Ben is a yearly DPOY candidate and so is Marion. Both teams have good enough benches to provide the boost(s) needed in a potential seven game series. The series will on whether or not Bogut, Hill, Brown, and Frye can step up their game for their respective teams. Since it is a close call I'll go with the more experienced team top to bottom and that is the Suns.
Prediction: Suns 4, Rockets 3 (two OT games)
#3 Denver Nuggets (50-32) vs. #6 Dallas Mavericks (51-31)
Starting Five Breakdown:
Center
vs.
Tim Duncan is a sim legend. He'll quietly give you 20 ppg, 10 rpg, and 2 bpg. He is a good defender and a great offensive player. His basketball IQ is off the charts and he knows how to play within an offense. Antonio McDyess is a good player and better suited as a 6th man. He's a good scorer when needed and can play good defense. He's going to have his hands full with Duncan and it will be a miracle if he can keep up with Duncan's scoring. Duncan should dominate the undersized McDyess. Edge: Nuggets
Power Forward
vs.
Normally, Wallace would gets the nod here but Marshall is playing well. Marshall had a good year and could hang with Sheed but I'm realistic. Wallace is a good defender and can destroy teams on the offensive end at times. Plus, he shoots 40% from the three point line and rebounds well. Marshall put up good numbers but they were good numbers for him. He's not going to outplay Sheed. Edge: Mavs
Small Forward
vs.
This is where it gets sticky. Josh Howard has developed a nice offensive game to go with a good defensive game. He's a better defender than Melo and could contain him but Melo is better offensively. Melo should take advantage of Howard in the post while Howard's quickness will be useful in getting by Melo. If Howard can outperform Melo at both ends Mavs could win the series. Edge: Mavs
Shooting Guard
vs.
This will be a matchup. Barbosa is unstoppable on offense and is learning to be a better passer. Rip Hamilton will run Barbosa ragged getting open for jumpers off of screens. Rip also plays good D but will be chasing Barbosa around the court. This could come down to who has more energy. If that is the case then I have to go with Rip. Edge: Mavs
Point Guard
vs.
This easily goes to Bibby. He's a great offensive point guard and can make the necessary passes to run an offense. He lacks any defensive prowess. However, Devin Harris is out for the playoffs and Earl Boykins will be the new starting point guard. Boykins is very quick but his size will be at a disadvantage on defense as Bibby can just post him up, although I would love to see Boykins destroy Bibby. Edge: Nuggets
Bench
vs.
Looks like the bench will decide another series. Bonzi Wells, Jeff Green, Matt Barnes, Joakim Noah, and David Wesley have contributed all season. Wells is a great bench player and Barnes and Noah provide much needed energy off the bench. Jeff Green will need to step up as will Wesley since Harris in injured. Jerry Stackhouse, Flip Murray, Devean George, DeSagana Diop, and Julian Wright are good as a group off the bench. Stack is the perfect 6th man and has improved his 3-point shooting. George has always performed off the bench and Diop brings a legit shot blocking ability. Murray puts the Mavs bench over the top. There are just too many experienced players that have proven themselves in the playoffs on that team. Edge: Mavs
Total Edge: Nuggets 2, Mavs 4
Series Breakdown:
This should be another close series. The Harris injury will play a major part in how close the games are for the Mavs. Even without Harris the Mavs have plenty of firepower. Sheed had his usual 19 ppg and 9 rpg while playing good defense. He may have been his usual self but Dice was anything but. Returning to his previous Nuggets days, he had 21.1 ppg, 9.9 rpg, and over 1.7 bpg. He stepped up his game in a big way. The rest of the team performed as expected and will make it tough for the Nuggets to advance.
The Nuggets have a deep team led by Tim Duncan. Duncan was solid as always and Bibby played well beside him with 20.7 ppg, 6.3 apg, and 1.79 spg. Marshall had a 15 ppg and 7 rpg year to help take some pressure off of Bibby and Duncan. All staters had at least 12 ppg and Barbosa and Melo can go off at any time and drop a 40 point game. It is going to be hard for the Nuggets to get past the Mavs without any major contributions from their bench but with player like Noah and Barnes bringing an attitude 2nd squad, production shouldn't be an issue.
This should be another close series but I just can't go against Duncan. Duncan, Melo, and Bibby. We'll be hearing from them again in the playoffs.
Prediction: Nuggets 4, Mavs 3
#2 New Orleans Hornets (54-28) vs. #7 Utah Jazz (48-34)
Starting Five Breakdown:
Center
vs.
Shaq is still dominant is a sim. He's a great low-post defender but Okur doesn't play a lot of low post on offense. He's a jump shooter with range out to three. I'm not expecting Shaq to stop Okur but I know Okur won't some close to stopping Shaq on offense or on the boards. Shaq should return to form against the Jazz. Edge: Hornets
Power Forward
vs.
This is another good matchup. David West and Carlos Boozer are both great young power forwards. Both have good low-post games and both can play defense. West is a better jump shooter and has more range while Boozer can knock down the 10-12 footer all day long. Both can rebound well too. They should both cancel each other out but I'll give the slight edge to Boozer since he has prior playoff experience. Edge: Jazz
Small Forward
vs.
I'm going to say this matchup decides the series. Butler is a great all-around player while Richardson is adept offensively. JRich can hit the three and still has enough left to take to the hole. Butler can also hit the three but is more of a slasher on offense. Butler is a better defender than JRich but doesn't come up with more steals. Butler is going to give JRich problems all day. Edge: Jazz
Shooting Guard
vs.
This matchup will come down to who can play better defense. Mike Miller is an upper echelon scorer and a dangerous three point threat but Dorell Wright is coming into his own after getting a year to start. Wright will have to raise his offensive game to win this matchup. His defense is already better than Miller's and could be great one day. This isn't the day so...Edge: Jazz
Point Guard
vs.
Both Deron Williams and Raymond Felton are young and are leading two winning teams into the playoffs. Deron is bigger and much more of a scorer than Felton. Both play ok defense and both can make great passes. Deron has much more playoff experience and experience leading his team. That is the difference. Edge: Jazz
Bench
vs.
The benches for both teams are solid but the Jazz are more deep. Ronnie Brewer won't even get playing and he's a good defensive minded player. Posey, Millsap, Fisher, P.J. Brown, and Pargo bring experience of being in the playoffs and winning in the playoffs. That is a hard combo to beat with the likes of a very old Doug Christie, Gary Payton, Lammond Murray, and Tony Delk. Ime Udoka is the best bench player and he barely gets playing time. Edge: Jazz
Total Edge: Hornets 1, Jazz 5
Series Breakdown:
There are a lot of unknowns for the Hornets. Before we go over those lets go over the knowns. Shaq will be his normal self if not better (23 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 4.1 apg, and 2.18 bpg). David West will at least produce 15 ppg and 8 rpg for the Hornets in this series. Felton and JRich should be close to their regular season stats (15ppg and 13 ppg) but will be hard pressed to produce better than that. The biggest unknown is Dorell Wright. If he can do more than his 9.8 ppg in the regular season the Hornets have a shot to win this series. Also, Mike Miller must step up and be the 3-point threat for Shaq, Jason Kapono was. The bench is aging rapidly and how much they have left is unknown.
The Jazz don't have as many questions. The main question is, "Who will step up and play well off the bench?" There could easily be more than one answer to that question. There are at least five guys that could step up and each one will have their chance. The starting five have fewer questions. Okur had a great season (19.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg, and 3.7 apg) along with Boozer (16+ppg and 10+rpg). The starting five is better and the bench is better. I have to go with the Jazz. This is my upset pick so far and I'll stick to it.
Prediction: Hornets 2, Jazz4 [/color][/b]